Air Senegal to launch Geneva and London; Milan, Madrid, Rome next?

Air Senegal has announced both Geneva and London, its fourth and fifth destinations in Europe

By Theo Edwards: Source: anna aero (airline network news and analysis)

Abidjan, Bamako, Banjul, Bissau, Conakry, Freetown, Nouakchott, and Praia are available over Dakar on a two-way basis, with connections within about two hours in both directions.

Air Senegal’s growth continues. In December, it added Dakar to Lagos via Accra; Abuja via Niamey; Casablanca; and Barcelona via Marseille. Freetown via Banjul is coming in June. The carrier is focusing significantly on hub-and-spoke, in contrast to the previous point-to-point Senegal Airlines. A highly coordinated hub is an obvious strategy for Air Senegal, partly given its geographic position.

Air Senegal has announced both Geneva and London, its fourth and fifth destinations in Europe. The carrier is to lease two 165-seat A321s – 149 economy seats, 16 lie-flat business – for these routes, and also for Abidjan, Casablanca, and Conakry.

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Shown here are its West Africa – North Africa / Europe – West Africa connections, all well coordinated for connectivity over Dakar. Other African cities, such as Accra and Lagos, are timed to connect with other cities in West Africa (i.e., most of those that Europe connects with) rather than to Europe. Source: OAG Mapper.

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Green = already served or announced. Blue = unserved. Geneva and London will be served non-stop. Marseille and Barcelona are currently linked in a triangle. Perhaps the A220-300 will be used to serve some thinner destinations, such as Toulouse? Source: OAG Traffic Analyser.

Geneva has ~69,000 passengers; London ~108,000

Geneva is a market of ~69,000 (Dakar point-to-point and demand to connecting destinations), and it will be partly driven by demand from the United Nations. It’ll probably also attract some of Lyon’s ~65,000 passengers, at least non-stop to Dakar, given the two cities are only 93 miles apart. London is a market of ~108,000 (excluding non-stop traffic to Banjul). It is reported that Stansted was chosen due to no early morning slots at Gatwick, with Air Senegal’s timings (or very similar) crucial for connectivity over Dakar.

Up to eight connecting destinations so far over Dakar

Its timings are, of course, based on maximizing connectivity to/from West Africa. Although it does vary a little based on day, Abidjan, Bamako, Banjul, Bissau, Conakry, Freetown, Nouakchott, and Praia are available over Dakar on a two-way basis, with connections within about two hours in both directions. London – Freetown, for example, is a market of ~36,000 passengers, with timings as follows:

• Freetown – Dakar: 1945 – 2230; Dakar – London: 0015 – 0625

• London – Dakar: 0750 – 1405; Dakar – Freetown: 1600 – 1845

Milan, Madrid, and Rome next?

Air Senegal’s European routes each had 60,000+ passengers before starting. Barcelona, Geneva, and Marseille also had local Dakar traffic averaging 47% of their total. Presumably, Marseille (~64,000) and Barcelona (~75,000) – each a good-sized market – will one day benefit from being de-tagged and served non-stop by A321s rather than on a triangle basis by the A330-900.

The figure, (Top 10 European markets for Air Senegal), shows the estimated two-way demand for Dakar and Air Senegal’s eight connecting destinations in the year to November 2019. For fairness, these numbers exclude any non-stop passengers as they’d be less likely to switch. Excluding short-term demand impacts from the coronavirus, Milan (76,000), Madrid (63,000), and Rome (58,000) seem good contenders for Air Senegal’s future European expansion. As is Lyon itself (65,000), but that’s now less certain given Geneva.

Milan stands out. Its ~76,000 is based on ~41,000 indirect Dakar traffic. Air Italy currently operates Milan Malpensa – Dakar four-weekly by the A330-200. However, the carrier is to cease operating. Therefore, it is fair to add its ~78,000 non-stop passengers, meaning Milan is a potential market of ~154,000.